TAX REVENUE AND SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA (2015-2024)

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of tax revenue on the economic development of
Nigeria over the period 2015–2024. Specifically, it examines how Company Income
Tax (CIT), Capital Gains Tax (CGT), Value Added Tax (VAT), and Withholding Tax
(WHT) influence Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Per Capita Income (PCI), and the
Human Development Index (HDI). Using secondary data from the Federal Inland
Revenue Service, the Central Bank of Nigeria, and the National Bureau of Statistics,
the study employs an ex-post facto research design and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
regression analysis. Findings indicate that tax revenue components have a significant
positive effect on GDP and PCI, with CGT and VAT emerging as the strongest
predictors. However, the effect on HDI was statistically insignificant. The findings
underscore the importance of strategic tax administration and policy reforms in
promoting sustainable economic development. The study recommends strengthening
tax collection mechanisms, broadening the tax base, and enhancing transparency in
the allocation of public funds to maximize developmental outcomes.